Is an optimistic third quarter for Bitcoin on the horizon?
Statistics indicate that Bitcoin may conclude Q3 2024 between $78,000 and $87,500.
Welcome to MrGekkoWallSt's virtual office! This is edition number 10 of my newsletter! Here, I organize and share my insights on the market, technical analysis, education, experiences, reflections, and the most relevant news of the period.
Reflection:
One of the most common events in the financial market is hearing or watching analysts discuss the various types of changes in the indicators or fundamentals of a particular asset.
However, an indicator that is rarely remembered and valued in the cryptocurrency market is the statistical history.
Through the statistical history, it is possible to analyze how an asset or index behaved in a particular phase or market context, providing important insights into the pattern of its future behavior.
Statistical data serves as an additional ingredient in the analysis body. However, a pattern that occurred in the past does not guarantee it will repeat in the future, but on some occasions, history may rhyme.
Below, check out a combination of historical patterns in Bitcoin that I recently mapped out:
Would it be surprising if Bitcoin closed Q3 (third quarter) of 2024 between $78,000 and $87,500?
Statistically, since 2013, there have been 6 instances where Q1 closed positively.
It was observed that in the following Q2 after this event, there were three instances of negative closings (2013, 2021, and 2024) and three instances of positive closings (2017, 2019, and 2023).
In 2024, Bitcoin experienced a positive Q1 (+68.68%) and a negative Q2 (-11.92%). Note that this phenomenon only occurred in the years 2013 and 2021.
Observe that Q3 of 2013 resulted in (+40.6%) and Q3 of 2021 (+25.01%).
Following this logic and maintaining the average percentage proportions, BTC could add gains that would place the price between $78,000 and $87,500 by the end of Q3 2024 (September).
Final Thoughts:
Bitcoin has been in a correction phase since March 13, 2024, which means it will soon complete 4 months.
This correction is already one of the longest down periods in an uptrend for the asset.
Statistics indicate that it wouldn’t be surprising for Bitcoin to achieve good returns by the end of Q3 (September), as the data suggests a higher probability of the asset reaching new all-time highs.
Finally, be aware that this is not enough for decision-making. For me, the statistics are positive, and I hope the party continues. Subscribe to follow this market with me.
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